Federal Employee Advisor Match

TSP Balance Projection Calculator (2026)

How much will your Thrift Savings Plan be worth when you retire? This calculator projects your TSP balance year by year — accounting for FERS agency matching, the 2026 IRS contribution limits including super catch-up for ages 60–63, and compound investment growth. Enter your current balance and contribution rate to see your retirement trajectory.

The TSP millionaire milestone: As of early 2026, approximately 185,000 TSP participants have accounts exceeding $1 million, representing about 2.5% of all TSP accounts.1 The common thread among TSP millionaires is not investment timing — it is consistent maxing of the contribution limit and capturing the full FERS agency match for decades. This calculator shows whether your current trajectory gets you there.
Your combined traditional + Roth TSP balance today. Find it on tsp.gov, your most recent participant statement, or your LES. Enter 0 if you are a new participant.
Base pay + locality pay from your most recent SF-50 or LES. Used to compute your dollar contribution from your percentage election and your FERS agency match amount.
The percentage you currently elect from each paycheck. Your annual dollar contribution is capped at the IRS limit for your age. FERS employees who contribute at least 5% capture the full agency match — anything less leaves free money on the table.
Determines eligibility for catch-up contributions: standard $8,000 additional at ages 50–59 and 64+; super catch-up $11,250 at ages 60–63 (SECURE 2.0 §109, effective 2025).
FERS minimum retirement age (MRA) ranges from 55 to 57 by birth year. Most full-benefit FERS retirements occur at 57–62. Unsure of your MRA? Use the FERS eligibility calculator.
Retirement system
The TSP C Fund (S&P 500) has returned approximately 10–11% annually since its inception; the L 2040 Fund approximately 6–7% over the past decade. A 7% assumption is a moderate middle-ground. Use 5–6% for a conservative scenario; 8–9% if you hold predominantly equities in the C or S Fund. This projection does not adjust for inflation.

How TSP compound growth builds retirement wealth

Three forces compound on top of each other in a TSP account:

  1. Tax-deferred compounding: Traditional TSP contributions reduce your taxable income today, and earnings grow without annual tax drag. At 7% annual growth, a balance doubles roughly every 10 years. A federal employee with $150,000 at age 45 who makes no additional contributions would reach approximately $590,000 by age 62 from growth alone.
  2. FERS agency match — the highest guaranteed return available: Contributing 5% of your salary earns an additional 5% from the agency (1% automatic + 4% match). The 4th and 5th percent you contribute each pay period earn an immediate 50–100% return before any investment gain. No market strategy competes with this.
  3. Catch-up contributions in your final working decade: Age 50–59 and 64+: $8,000 additional per year on top of the $24,500 base. Ages 60–63: $11,250 additional (SECURE 2.0 super catch-up). Fully utilized from age 55 to 62, these add approximately $57,000–$79,000 in contributions alone — before compounding.
The agency match in dollar terms: A GS-13 at $115,000 contributing 10% puts in $11,500/year. The agency adds $5,750 (5% × $115,000 = 1% auto + 4% match). Total annual contribution: $17,250. Over 20 years at 7%, that agency match component compounds to approximately $235,000 of the final balance. The federal employee who contributes only 3% and captures only partial match foregoes the equivalent of a mid-career salary over a full career.

2026 TSP contribution limits

The IRS adjusts TSP limits annually. The 2026 amounts, verified against IRS Rev. Proc. 2025-67 and TSP Bulletin 25-3:2

Limit type2026 AmountWho qualifies
Base elective deferral$24,500All TSP participants
Standard catch-up$8,000Age 50–59, and age 64+
Super catch-up (SECURE 2.0 §109)$11,250Age 60, 61, 62, or 63
Combined max (ages 60–63)$35,750Age 60–63
Combined max (ages 50–59, 64+)$32,500Age 50–59, 64+

Agency automatic and matching contributions are not counted against your elective deferral limit. You can contribute the full $24,500 (plus any catch-up) and still receive the full agency match on top.

Using the 4% withdrawal rate as a planning benchmark

The calculator expresses projected TSP balance as monthly income at a 4% annual withdrawal rate — a conservative sustainable-withdrawal benchmark from long-term portfolio research. At $1 million, 4% = $40,000/year = $3,333/month. At $800,000, it is $2,667/month.

Federal retirees typically have lower portfolio-depletion risk than private-sector retirees because the FERS pension provides a baseline floor of income that does not depend on the portfolio. This often means a withdrawal rate higher than 4% is sustainable in practice. The correct withdrawal rate for your situation depends on your FERS annuity size, FEHB premiums in retirement, Social Security timing, and TSP allocation. This is one of the primary questions a federal-benefits advisor models.

See also: TSP Withdrawal Options Guide for the mechanics of partial, monthly, and lump-sum distributions from TSP.

Related tools and guides

Sources

  1. Federal News Network — Number of TSP millionaires trends downward (April 2026): ~185,000 participants with $1M+
  2. TSP Bulletin 25-3 — 2026 Annual Limits for Contributions
  3. IRS.gov — 401(k) limit increases to $24,500 for 2026
  4. TSP.gov — Fund Performance and Historical Returns

Contribution limits verified against IRS Rev. Proc. 2025-67 and TSP Bulletin 25-3. FERS agency match schedule per 5 U.S.C. § 8432. TSP millionaire count per Federal News Network / TSP quarterly data, April 2026. Values current as of June 2026.

Projections are a starting point, not a plan

Your TSP balance at retirement interacts with your FERS annuity, Social Security timing, FEHB premiums, Roth conversion opportunities between your retirement date and age 62, and IRMAA thresholds that can add thousands per year in Medicare surcharges. A spreadsheet projection cannot optimize all of these levers together.

FederalEmployeeAdvisorMatch connects you with fee-only advisors who specialize in FERS, TSP, and federal retirement benefits. They model your full picture — annuity, TSP, Social Security, and tax — not just one number in isolation. No commissions, no product sales.

FederalEmployeeAdvisorMatch is a referral service, not a licensed advisory firm. We may receive compensation from professionals in our network. Content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, tax, legal, or investment advice.